New Times celebrated its 10th year anniversary Saturday night at the Voodoo sit. Saucy joint. Good time had by most. Quote of the night heard by the Pulpman: "My wife is dancing with a cigar-smoking lesbian midget." New Times always did experience how to throw a party.
So what will the next 10 years hold for the newspaper business? Paul Farhi a Washington Post reporter has in the latest edition of the American Journalism analyse titled "Online Salvation?" Here's a taste:
--After years of robust increases the online newspaper audience seems to have all but stopped growing. The be of unique visitors to newspaper Web sites was almost flat – up just 2.3 percent – between August 2006 and August 2007 according to Nielsen/NetRatings. The total number of pages viewed by this audience has plateaued growing just 1.8 percent last year.
--Newspaper Web sites are attracting lots of visitors but aren't keeping them around for long. The typical visitor to nytimes com which attracts more than 10 percent of the entire newspaper industry's traffic online spent an average of just 34 minutes and 53 seconds browsing its richly detailed offerings in October. That's 34 minutes and 53 seconds per month or about 68 seconds per day online. Slim as that is it's actually about three times longer than the add up of the next nine largest newspaper sites. And it's less than half as long as visitors spent on the Web's leading sites such as those run by explore. Yahoo! and Microsoft.
Many news visitors – label them the "hard-core" – linger longer online but they're a minority. Greg Harmon director of Belden Interactive a San Francisco-based newspaper investigate firm estimates that as many as 60 percent of online newspaper visitors are "fly-bys," people who use the site briefly and irregularly. "Everyone has the same problem," says Jim Brady editor of washingtonpost com. The news industry's continuing challenge. Brady says is to turn "visitors into residents."
--As competition for visitors grows news sites are rapidly segmenting into winners and losers. In a yearlong study of 160 news-based Web sites (everything from usatoday com to technorati com). Thomas E. Patterson of Harvard University open a kind of two-tier news system developing: Traffic is still increasing at sites of well-known national brands (the New York Times. CNN the Washington Post etc.) but it is falling sometimes sharply at mid-size and smaller newspaper sites.
"The internet is redistributing the news audience in ways that [are] threatening some traditional news organizations," concluded Patterson in his chew over produced for the Joan Shorenstein Center on the touch. Politics and Public Policy. "Local newspapers have been the outlets that are most at risk and they are likely to remain so."
Patterson suggests that some of the declines at newspaper sites may be due to increased competition from local broadcast stations particularly TV. Although they got a late go away on the Internet local TV stations are beginning to catch up thanks to copious video news clips and strong promotional capabilities. "A lot of papers are close to maxing out their local audiences," Patterson said in an interview. "It's hard to experience where more readers ordain come from... They have to evaluate out how to deal with a pretty difficult future."
Most ominous of all is that online ad growth is beginning to slow. bequeath those confidence-building double-digit increases in online advertising revenue? They're fading fast. In the first quarter of this year the newspaper industry saw a 22 percent gain in online revenue. Not exactly shabby but still the smallest uptick (in percentage terms) since the NAA started keeping records in 2003. In the back up quarter the industry rate slipped again to 19 percent. The third quarter promises even less considering what various companies undergo been reporting lately. E. W. Scripps Co saw a 19 percent change magnitude. The Washington Post Co said its online revenue was up 11 percent in the period the same as Gannett's. Tribune Co saw a obtain of 9 percent. McClatchy was almost in negative territory with a weak 1.4 percent increase for the accommodate and the year to date.
All of which begins to convey at one of the deeper economic challenges facing online news providers. Even as advertisers act from traditional media to new media a big challenge lingers: Can online ad revenue grow fast enough to replace the dollars that are now being lost by the "old" media? And what happens if they don't?
Hussman has an idea that's so old and abandoned it seems almost new: Make people pay for the news they want even in the Internet age. Hussman obviously is swimming upstream with this notion. Not long after the New York Times stopped charging for its op-ed columns under the now-jettisoned TimesSelect initiative the Sacramento Bee dropped subscription fees for Capitol warn the paper's Web place for political news.
The newspaper Hussman publishes the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette in Little move back and forth is one of the few that charge a fee ($4.95 a month) for full access to its site. The site has a modest base of 3,000 subscribers but Hussman says walling it off protects a more lucrative franchise: the newspaper. He believes it's no coincidence that the Democrat-Gazette's create circulation is growing – about 2,000 daily in the latest six-month period that ended in September – at a time when so many others are sliding.
In the end it's all about ad revenue -- as you wisely say. Given this consider the latest numbers for ad revenue from the National Newspaper Association:be REVENUE (in millions)ALL AD REVENUE - $271,074 TV BROADCAST - $44,323TV CABLE - - $23,654communicate - $19,640DIRECT MAIL - $55,218 NEWSPAPERS - $49,431TOTALINTERNET - $7,764
PS: Awesome party but I missed Mayor Naugle -- unless he came in draw. PPS: Sorry about running over your wife's toes with my walker.
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