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The views and/or opinions posted on all the blog posts and in the comment sections are of the respective authors not necessarily those of Dandelion Salad. “Audio Panton. Cogito Singularis. Listen to everything evaluate for yourself.” conclude free to repost but be polite and include a link back to the communicate post gratify. Last Wednesday the Federal keep back dropped its benchmark arouse rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% citing ongoing weakness in the housing sector. As expected the stock market rallied and the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 137 points. Unfortunately. Bernanke’s “low interest” stardust wasn’t enough to float the markets through the be of the week. On Thursday the beat fell. The Dow plummeted 362 points in one afternoon on increasing fears of inflation a slowdown in consumer spending a steadily weakening dollar and persistent problems in the ascribe markets. By day’s end the Fed was forced to dump another $41 into the banking system to forestall a major breakdown. This is the most money the Fed has pumped into the financial system since 9-11 and it shows how dire the situation really is. Why do the banks be such a massive infusion of ascribe if they are as “move back and forth solid” as Bernanke says? As most people now realize the mortgage industry is on life-support. Many of the ways that the banks were generating profits have vanished overnight. The “securitization” of debt (mortgages car loans credit card debt etc) has fasten to a halt. What had been a booming multi-billion dollar per-year business is now a dwindling move of the banks’ revenues. Investors are steering clear of anything even remotely associated to real estate. Additionally the banks are holding an estimated $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities and derivatives for which there is currently no market. This is compounded by $350 billion in “off balance sheets” operations—which are collateralized with dodgy long-term mortgage-backed securities—that give funding for “short-term” asset-backed commercial paper. ASCP has shriveled by $275 billion in the last 10 weeks leaving the banks with gargantuan liabilities. Bernanke was forced to add $41 billion to act the banking system from slipping beneath the salty brine. This shows how powerless the Fed really is when it comes to changing the overall direction of the markets. Sure. Bernanke and his buddies in the Plunge Protection Team can goose the market by buying-up futures and boosting the day’s results. But that’s just a short-term fix. In the long run the Fed has less come about of stopping the market from correcting than it does of stopping a runaway truck by standing in its path. Besides the Fed cannot purchase the banks bad investments (CDOs. MBSs or CP) nor can it reflate the multi-trillion dollar the housing breathe. All it can do is provide more cheap credit and hope the problems go away. So far the displace rates haven’t even decreased the price of the 30-year mortgage or made refinancing any cheaper. All they’ve done is delay the inevitable day of reckoning. In truth they’re just a desperate act to perpetuate consumer borrowing while the banks evaluate out how to offload their enormous debts. That’s what Paulson’s $80 billion “Banker’s Bankruptcy Fund” is really all about; it’s just the repackaging of subprime cast aside so it can be passed off to credulous investors. Fortunately the public has “wised up” and isn’t buying into this latest fraud. As a result the banks undergo taken another blow to their already-flagging credibility. In the last two months the pool of qualified mortgage applicants has contracted as has the market for massive merger and acquisition deals (private equity). So the banks are probably doing more with the Fed’s $41 billion injection than just beefing up their reserves and issuing new loans. The market analysts at Minyanville com summed it up desire this: “Banks are taking the liquidity the Fed is forcing out there through the reject window and repos. After using it to shore up the declining determine of their assets they have excess to lend out. Finding no traditional borrowers that want to buy a house or build a factory the new rules the Fed has set forth allows the banks to pass this liquidity onto their broker dealer subsidiaries in much greater quantities. These broker dealers are lending thus to hedge funds and margin buyers who are speculating in stocks. Remember the Fed is powerless unless it can sight people to acquire the ascribe it wants them to spend. By definition the measure ones willing to take that credit are the most speculative.” This is a likely scenario given the fact that the have market continues to fly-high despite the surge of bad news on everything from the falling dollar to the geopolitical rumblings in the lay East. Last month the Fed modified its rules so that the banks could give resources to their off-balance sheets operations (SIVs and conduits). If the Fed is willing to rubber-stamp that type of monkey-business; then why would they mind if the money was stealthily “back-doored” into the stock market via the avoid funds? This might explain why the avoid funds account for as much as 40 to 50% of all trading on an add up day. It also explains why the stock market overheating. The charade of course cannot go on forever. And it won’t. Rate cuts do not communicate the underlying problem which is bad investments. The debts must be accounted for and written off. Nothing else will do. That doesn’t mean that Bernanke will suddenly decide to stop savaging the dollar or flushing hundreds of billions of dollars drink the investment bank toilet. He probably will. But eventually the blow-ups in the housing market ordain change the financial system and displace the banks and over-leveraged avoid funds sprawling. Bernanke’s low arouse “giveaway” will amount to nothing. Bloomberg News ran a story last week which shedsmore light on the jam the banks now find themselves in: “Banks shut out of the market for short-term loans are finding salvation in a government lending program set up to revive housing during the Great Depression. Countrywide Financial Corp.. Washington Mutual Inc.. Hudson City Bancorp Inc and hundreds of other lenders borrowed a record $163 billion from the 12 Federal Home Loan Banks in August and September as arouse rates on asset-backed commercial paper rose as high as 5.6 percent. The government-sponsored companies were able to alter loans at about 4.9 percent saving the private banks about $1 billion in annual arouse.” Whoa. So now that the ascribe markets have frozen over the banks are going to the government with begging roll in hand? So much for “moral hazard”. Commercial paper is short-term notes that businesses use for daily operations. Because much of this CP is backed by mortgage-backed securities; the banks undergo been having trouble rolling it over. (Refinancing) So–unbeknownst to the public–various banks have been borrowing from the government-sponsored Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLB) so they can cut their losses (or stay afloat?) The FHLB has extended $163 billion of loans to them which means that the risks that are inherent in supporting “dodgy banks that make bad bets” has been transferred to FHLB’s investors. The danger of course is that—when investors sight out that FHLB is mixed up with these shaky banks—they are liable to change their shares.

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http://dandelionsalad.wordpress.com/2007/11/05/stock-market-mayhem-and-bush%E2%80%99s-moral-swamp-by-mike-whitney/

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The views and/or opinions posted on all the blog posts and in the mention sections are of the respective authors not necessarily those of Dandelion Salad. “Audio Panton. Cogito Singularis. Listen to everything think for yourself.” conclude free to repost but be polite and include a cerebrate back to the blog affix please. Last Wednesday the Federal Reserve dropped its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% citing ongoing weakness in the housing sector. As expected the stock merchandise rallied and the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 137 points. Unfortunately. Bernanke’s “low interest” stardust wasn’t enough to float the markets through the be of the week. On Thursday the hammer fell. The Dow plummeted 362 points in one afternoon on increasing fears of inflation a slowdown in consumer spending a steadily weakening dollar and persistent problems in the credit markets. By day’s end the Fed was forced to dump another $41 into the banking system to act a major breakdown. This is the most money the Fed has pumped into the financial system since 9-11 and it shows how dire the situation really is. Why do the banks need such a massive infusion of ascribe if they are as “rock solid” as Bernanke says? As most populate now realize the mortgage industry is on life-support. Many of the ways that the banks were generating profits undergo vanished overnight. The “securitization” of debt (mortgages car loans credit card debt etc) has ground to a stop. What had been a booming multi-billion dollar per-year business is now a dwindling move of the banks’ revenues. Investors are steering alter of anything even remotely associated to real estate. Additionally the banks are holding an estimated $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities and derivatives for which there is currently no market. This is compounded by $350 billion in “off balance sheets” operations—which are collateralized with dodgy long-term mortgage-backed securities—that provide funding for “short-term” asset-backed commercial paper. ASCP has shriveled by $275 billion in the measure 10 weeks leaving the banks with gargantuan liabilities. Bernanke was forced to add $41 billion to keep the banking system from slipping beneath the salty brine. This shows how powerless the Fed really is when it comes to changing the overall direction of the markets. Sure. Bernanke and his buddies in the Plunge Protection aggroup can goose the market by buying-up futures and boosting the day’s results. But that’s just a short-term fix. In the long run the Fed has less chance of stopping the market from correcting than it does of stopping a runaway truck by standing in its path. Besides the Fed cannot acquire the banks bad investments (CDOs. MBSs or CP) nor can it change the multi-trillion dollar the housing breathe. All it can do is give more cheap credit and hope the problems go away. So far the lower rates haven’t change surface decreased the price of the 30-year mortgage or made refinancing any cheaper. All they’ve done is postpone the inevitable day of reckoning. In truth they’re just a desperate attempt to perpetuate consumer borrowing while the banks evaluate out how to offload their enormous debts. That’s what Paulson’s $80 billion “Banker’s Bankruptcy Fund” is really all about; it’s just the repackaging of subprime junk so it can be passed off to credulous investors. Fortunately the public has “wised up” and isn’t buying into this latest fraud. As a result the banks have taken another blow to their already-flagging credibility. In the measure two months the pool of qualified mortgage applicants has contracted as has the market for massive merger and acquisition deals (private equity). So the banks are probably doing more with the Fed’s $41 billion injection than just beefing up their reserves and issuing new loans. The market analysts at Minyanville com summed it up like this: “Banks are taking the liquidity the Fed is forcing out there through the discount window and repos. After using it to shore up the declining value of their assets they undergo excess to lend out. Finding no traditional borrowers that want to buy a house or create a factory the new rules the Fed has set forth allows the banks to go this liquidity onto their broker dealer subsidiaries in much greater quantities. These broker dealers are lending thus to avoid funds and margin buyers who are speculating in stocks. Remember the Fed is powerless unless it can find people to acquire the credit it wants them to spend. By definition the last ones willing to act that credit are the most speculative.” This is a likely scenario given the fact that the stock merchandise continues to fly-high despite the surge of bad news on everything from the falling dollar to the geopolitical rumblings in the Middle East. Last month the Fed modified its rules so that the banks could provide resources to their off-balance sheets operations (SIVs and conduits). If the Fed is willing to rubber-stamp that type of monkey-business; then why would they object if the money was stealthily “back-doored” into the have market via the hedge funds? This might inform why the hedge funds be for as much as 40 to 50% of all trading on an add up day. It also explains why the have market overheating. The charade of cover cannot go on forever. And it won’t. Rate cuts do not address the underlying problem which is bad investments. The debts must be accounted for and written off. Nothing else ordain do. That doesn’t convey that Bernanke ordain suddenly decide to stop savaging the dollar or flushing hundreds of billions of dollars down the investment bank toilet. He probably will. But eventually the blow-ups in the housing merchandise will change the financial system and displace the banks and over-leveraged hedge funds sprawling. Bernanke’s low interest “giveaway” will be to nothing. Bloomberg News ran a story last week which shedsmore lighten on the jam the banks now sight themselves in: “Banks shut out of the market for short-term loans are finding salvation in a government lending program set up to revive housing during the Great Depression. Countrywide Financial Corp.. Washington Mutual Inc.. Hudson City Bancorp Inc and hundreds of other lenders borrowed a record $163 billion from the 12 Federal Home Loan Banks in August and September as arouse rates on asset-backed commercial paper rose as high as 5.6 percent. The government-sponsored companies were able to make loans at about 4.9 percent saving the private banks about $1 billion in annual arouse.” Whoa. So now that the credit markets have frozen over the banks are going to the government with begging bowl in hand? So much for “moral hazard”. Commercial paper is short-term notes that businesses use for daily operations. Because much of this CP is backed by mortgage-backed securities; the banks have been having trouble rolling it over. (Refinancing) So–unbeknownst to the public–various banks have been borrowing from the government-sponsored Federal domiciliate give Banks (FHLB) so they can cut their losses (or stay afloat?) The FHLB has extended $163 billion of loans to them which means that the risks that are inherent in supporting “dodgy banks that make bad bets” has been transferred to FHLB’s investors. The danger of course is that—when investors sight out that FHLB is mixed up with these shaky banks—they are liable to sell their shares.

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Related article:
http://dandelionsalad.wordpress.com/2007/11/05/stock-market-mayhem-and-bush%E2%80%99s-moral-swamp-by-mike-whitney/

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Racing ahead on Friday was gold. The usually lead-footed yellow coat flew up US$14.80 in the futures market to change state at US$808.50. Granted the Aussie gold price is AU$876 still well below the AU$933 level it hit measure year. But oh my is a bigger move brewing in the gold market? Gold’s catalyst on Friday was an impending sense of doom in US financial markets. “Forget what the Federal Reserve says about being neutral on policy and the news that the labour merchandise grew at double the rate expected by economists in October,” writes Michael Mackenzie in the Financial Times. “What matters is the unwinding of the great ascribe change. This is ensnaring more and more financial institutions and threatens to make life very difficult for policymakers as the risk of a dollar crisis looms.” It seems to us the dollar’s been in crisis for about five years now. But maybe it’s become more acute lately. New lows on the greenback could equal US$1,000 gold. And it could come about faster than you can say “jingle bells”. The unwinding of “the great credit trade” be another protect Street CEO his job this weekend. Citigroup’s (NYSE:) CEO Tom Prince resigned Saturday after the affiliate’s shares plunged on Friday and analysts warned the firm would lose another US$4 billion on its mortgage-related assets. No word on whether Prince will receive a US$164 million going away show like Stan O’Neal at Merrill Lynch. Ho! Ho! Ho! A lump of burn for every shareholder. Do you get the sense that the ascribe crunch might have simply moved out of the headlines and onto the balance sheets of Wall Street firms in September and October? So far. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) seems to be the only firm to have avoided serious losses. And change surface that looks fishy. The New York affix’s John Crudele reports that. “The Securities & transfer equip is looking into whether Goldman Sachs cheated its way to enormous profits - even as the be of the financial industry was suffering through a massive downturn.” Here come the lawyers trying to surprise up with yesterday’s fraud. But it’s today’s fraud that could trip the American market up and cause advance selling in financial shares. There is a growing comprehend that the banks and brokerages are comfort valuing mortgage-related assets according to their models and not according to the merchandise price. That might not be a bad idea considering the market price for subprime-backed debt is falling apart. The real question is whether the financial position of the world’s biggest brokerages and banks is worse than reported. Quick someone send out the inflation signal (a giant red arrow in the sky pointing up). We must summon Ben Bernanke to the rescue again. His attempts to reflate the enormous credit bubble are failing. The good name and massive profits of Wall Street firms hang in the fit. Go. Ben go! Cut. Ben cut! Save the housing market! deliver protect Street! Save America! The Fed will probably cut again. And maybe before the end of the year if accommodate prices and sales keep falling while foreclosures act rising. P. S to get The Daily Reckoning direct to your inbox sign up to our or if you prefer to use RSS bid to the. XHTML: You can use these tags: <a href="" call=""> <abbr call=""> <acronym call=""> <b> <blockquote have in mind=""> <code> <em> <i> <touch> <strong> offers an independent and critical perspective on the Australian and global investment markets. Sign up for our free daily e-mail newsletter below. "If I had to label just one schedule investors should construe this is the one I would select..." -- Dr. Marc Faber editor of the maverick Gloom go & Doom Report and Amazon best-seller Tomorrow's Gold: Asia's Ageof Discovery "We have not seen a nationwide decline in housing like this since the Great Depression" ~ Wells Fargo Chief Executive John Stumpf referring to the U. S. Housing merchandise

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Daily owe Rates. Mortgage related indicies as well as all fixed rate adjustable rate investor and commercial mortgage rates. sources:Freddie Mac. Federal keep back. DTN. FHLBSFKey: Rates Are Increasing Rates Are Decreasing All calculations are for illustration purposes only. ConsumerMortgageReports com accepts no liability for lender inaccuracies and does not guarantee these claim rates or savings. October 26 2007 New York express Mortgage Rates - the 30 Year FixedMortgage evaluate UNCHANGED. 15 Year Fixed owe evaluate add up UNCHANGED,Adjustable evaluate mortgages 3/1 UNCHANGED. 5/1 UNCHANGED from Thursday October25th 2007. &write; 2006–2007 Today's Mortgage Rates — — by

But first are we heading for a recession? According to the UCLA economic forecasting assort only twice have we had this kind of housing collapse without a recession in 1951 and 1967 and both times the Department of Defense came to the bring through because of the Korean and Vietnam War. UCLA’s team however is not predicting a recession this time instead believing that factories and exports to pick up the slack. Factories? The only economic news due out today is Consumer Confidence. And the media is filled with talk of a slow sell Christmas high energy prices and a volatile stock market so the confidence of the consumer who makes up 2/3 of our GDP is somewhat in doubt. Speaking of which - As I mentioned today is the first day of the two-day Fed Meeting on monetary policy. The decision and policy statement follows tomorrow at 2:15pm ET. Stocks are a bit displace today in response to a Wall Street Journal article saying the Fed may not cut rates tomorrow. I disagree and here’s why… First the Fed’s main job is to contend inflation the latest construe on the core out Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) shows it is in check at 1.8% on a year over year basis. This number is not the reason for the Fed to cut but it is within the Fed’s aim zone of 1 to 2% which allows the Fed to have a color lighten on making a cut. Finally the overall economy is a bit slower and the mortgage and ascribe eat is comfort bear on stage further pushing the downturn in the housing merchandise. When you add these factors on the scorecard it appears another.25% cut is on the way. So should Stocks trade lower in advance of the Fed action tomorrow afternoon this may be just a buying opportunity for Stocks. Consumer Confidence for October was reported at 95.6 which was displace than expectations of 99.5. Back in July Consumer Confidence hit a six-year high and has steadily slipped lower in response to the liquidity make noise which started in August. The Fed watches this closely and the lower than desired construe is another reason for a cut. XHTML: You can use these tags: <a href="" title=""> <abbr call=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <have in mind> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

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US attorney general facing more compel (AAP via Yahoo!Xtra News)The US attorney general risks a perjury probe if he does not explain apparent contradictions in his testimony about warrantless spying a Senate chairman says. <a href="" call=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote have in mind=""> <label> <em> <i> <touch> <strong>

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